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How Many Lives Could Have Been Saved if Florida, Texas Were Vaccinated Like Connecticut?

October 27, 2021

The COVID-19 vaccine has become the center of deep political division in the United States, but the science doesn’t lie. Vaccines work.

Since May, more than 150,000 Americans have died of COVID-19, as areas with low vaccination rates suffer the highest rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Earlier this month, in a study published in The Lancet, scientists performed a what-if experiment: What if Texas and Florida had higher vaccination rates? The scientists used Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island — which vaccinated an average of 74 percent of adults by July 31 — as a benchmark, then created a computer simulation to determine the difference in transmission, hospitalizations and deaths if the less-vaccinated Texas and Florida had also reached that benchmark until Aug. 31.

If those two states matched the benchmark, the scientists calculated, the vaccinations would have prevented about:

  • 1,311,900 COVID-19 cases (664,007 in Florida).
  • 95,000 hospital admissions (61,327 in Florida).
  • 22,000 deaths (16,235 in Florida).

A Department of Health and Human Services report earlier this month shows the effects of immunizing the elderly in Florida, with estimates that vaccinations in the year’s first five months prevented about 17,000 cases and 2,400 deaths. The study also estimates vaccinations nationwide prevented 265,000 COVID-19 infections, 107,000 hospitalizations and 39,000 deaths among Medicare beneficiaries between January and May.

Here are the Top 5 most vaccinated states as of Wednesday morning, as more people become eligible for immunization:

  1. Vermont: 70.94 percent.
  2. Rhode Island: 70.56 percent.
  3. Connecticut: 70.44 percent.
  4. Maine: 70.24 percent.
  5. Massachusetts: 69.38.

“Our vaccination rate has played a significant role in reducing at least the mortality in the hospitalizations we are seeing right now,” says Dr. Ajay Kumar, Hartford HealthCare’s Chief Clinical Officer. “I’m really proud of our state and how we’ve managed the pandemic.”

Florida now has 59.43 percent of its population vaccinated (21st among all states), Texas 53.06 percent (29th). But 14 states have fewer than half their population vaccinated, creating regions in the Midwest, Mountain West and Great Plains vulnerable to deadly outbreaks as winter approaches.

Even highly vaccinated states can experience high transmission rates as colder temperatures drive people indoors. Maine’s case levels, and hospitalizations, remain high. Dozens of people, mostly unvaccinated, have required ventilators in recent weeks.